3rd International Interdisciplinary conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology and Water Resources Management: Water Resources and Changing Global Environment. 24-27 September 2012, Vienna, Austria


Modelling experiments in reservoir operation management: estimation of possible climate pressure on the Kama reservoir, Russia

Olga Semenova, Darya Sazonova, Lyudmila Lebedeva (2012)

Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and its individual processes is a prerequisite for the development of new strategies to mitigate environmental risks and adapt the reservoirs and hydropower plants operation rules to future conditions.

The aim of this study was to estimation of possible impact of hypothetical climate change on water inflow to the Kama reservoir (catchment area of ​​168,000 km2). The Kama reservoir is located at the foothills of the Ural mountains in the European part of Russia. Most of the catchment area is covered by the spruce and pine forests. The Kama reservoir and hydropower plant is a source of water and energy for the large industrial area.

The distributed hydrological model Hydrograph developed under the supervision of Prof. Vinogradov in the State Hydrological Institute (St. Petersburg, Russia) was applied in the study. The Hydrograph model describes the processes of runoff formation in the catchment area including the heat and water dynamics in the soil that significantly influences the formation of spring floods depending on soil freezing depth and water saturation.

The model was adjusted to the conditions of studied area and validated against runoff and variable states at several watersheds within the catchment of the Kama reservoir. The total inflow to the reservoir was simulated for the period 1970-1996.

The main factors determining formation of maximum spring floods were investigated and defined as following: SWE at the end of winter sums of positive air temperature in spring, liquid precipitation in previous autumn and depth of frozen soil. Exaggerated to different extent those factors were combined to form the ensemble of hypothetical scenarios of climate change.

The results of modelled water inflow to the Kama reservoir according to hypothetical climate change scenarios will be presented. The recommendations for the adaptation of the reservoir operational rules to future conditions will be suggested.

permanent link to this abstract: http://hydrograph-model.ru/abstract.php?mode=external&id=20