Euromediterranean Network of Experimental and Representative Basins. 13th Biennial Conference ERB 2010 on Hydrological Responses of Small Basins to a changing environment. Seggau Castle, Austria – September 5-8, 2010

Evaluation of climate change impact on soil an snow processes in small watersheds of European part of Russia using various scenarios of climate

*Lebedeva L., **Semenova O.

*St. Petersburg State university, St. Petersburg, Russia  
** State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia  
Understanding the effect of climate change in the different hydrological processes is critical to assessing its impact on ecology, agriculture, infrastructure, and how those changes on the hydrological processes may be providing a feedback on climate change. 
The goal of the research was to assess the possible changes in soil water and heat dynamics and snow cover processes in the different landscapes of European part of Russia on the base of deterministic-stochastic modelling using IPCC climate change scenarios. Modelling of those physical processes is necessary for the evaluation of the climate change effects on particular hydrological processes and their consequences for runoff formation. 
The Deterministic-Stochastic Modelling System (DSMS) developed in State Hydrological Institute under the supervision of Prof. Yu.B. Vinogradov was employed here. The DSMS consists of two elements: a deterministic model of runoff formation processes called “Hydrograph” and the Stochastic Model of Weather (SMW). In such a deterministic-stochastic scheme the Hydrograph model is used to distinguish between landscapes with different soil, vegetation, and properties, while the SMW provides stochastic meteorological input and a framework to link global climate models in a changing environment with the land surface components, thus providing a quantifiable probabilistic outlook of the impact of climate change on hydrological processes.
The simulations and climate change impacts analysis were conducted for three experimental basins located in the European part of Russia (so called water-balance stations): Nizhnedevickaya on the river Devica (Don River tributary, forest-steppe landscape), Valday research station (on the upper Volga, taiga), Podmoskovnaya (Volga middle course, mixed and broad-leaved forest).
The research included following tasks:
Comparative analysis of the available climate change scenarios for European part of Russia.
Analysis of the available long-termed meteorological data for the chosen objects and its addition as far as possible.
Estimation of the parameters of Stochastic Model of Weather using long-termed series of meteorological observations, stochastic generation of meteorological data and its evaluation against estimated (observed) parameters.
Change of SMW parameters according the climate change scenarios and stochastic generation of meteorological data. The historically derived stochastic model parameters that control precipitation and temperature generation were modified to reflect each of the scenario projections.
Modelling of water and energy balance using simulated meteorological data for the chosen sites in different landscapes. 
Evaluation of changes in soil and snow processes for the different climate scenarios, different periods and regions. Comparative analysis.
The details and results of this study will be presented at the conference.
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