AMAP 2011 – The Arctic as a Messenger for Global Processes – Climate Change and Pollution, 4-6 May, 2011, Copenhagen, Denmark

Evaluation of possible climate change impact on runoff regime of small rivers in different landscapes of Eastern Siberia

Olga Semenova, Lyudmila Lebedeva, Natalia Kotova

The hydrologic cycle affects both the terrestrial and aquatic systems and is intimately coupled with the atmospheric system. One of the key, unresolved issues of climate change in the Arctic is how the hydrological cycle responds to the global change. There is a compelling need to understand the impacts of changing basin-scale heat-water regimes on river streamflow in the northern environment. 
The goal of the research was to assess the possible climate change impact on the annual, seasonal and extreme runoff characteristics of small rivers in different conditions of Eastern Siberia on the base deterministic-stochastic modelling using several climate change scenarios. 
The deterministic-stochastic modelling system developed in State Hydrological Institute of Russia was applied in this study. It consists of two modules: deterministic process-based hydrological model Hydrograph and the Stochastic Model of Weather. 
The overarching objectives of this research were: 
1. Establishing the dataset containing historically observed hydrological and meteorological values and landscapes characteristics for the chosen rivers. 
2. Verification existing deterministic model of runoff formation process.
3. Deriving ensembles of scenarios of future climate using the previously developed stochastic weather generator and IPCC climate change scenarios.
4. Assessment of climate change impact at the end of 2040 on runoff characteristics.
The research was conducted for four river basins in different landscape of Eastern Siberia: the Timpton river (basin area is 613 km2) situated in the Stanovoy Range in mountainous southern taiga, the Dulgalaakh river (400 km2, Verkhoyansky range, mountainous taiga and tundra), the Suola river (1270 km2, Central Yakutia Plain, larch taiga), and the Ebetiem river (1000 km2, tundra landscape of the delta part of the Lena river). 
The study results will be presented.
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